The Bordeaux exhibition centre (all 40,000 metres square of it) awaits the wine world. While the planetary economic crisis sweeps through all commercial sectors, one wonders what the consequences will be for the wine industry whose figures reached a world total of 150 billion dollars (turnover in retail price sales) in 2007.
On the production side, Australia has been experiencing difficulties for the past two years and, in France, black clouds are appearing on the horizon, especially in the Bordeaux vineyard.
These are just two examples amongst many.
As for the consumer markets, the two driving market forces - the U.S. and Great Britain - are both slipping into a recession. The once priviledged employees of the City and Wall Street as well as pension fund investors now have other things to think about than what wine they are going to buy, and pockets are considerably less deep than before....
In Spain, the domestic market has taken a nose-dive....
Despite these depressing circumstances, Vinexpo organisers say that they are satisfied with the number of exhibitor reservations and that the wine fair is fully booked. There is even a waiting list.
The challenge now will be to entice buyers from all over the world to Vinexpo and this in a context where stocks are high and difficult to shift and new orders are not on the immediate agenda.
In order to clarify the situation for professionals, the Vinexpo organisers have asked a British market survey company, I.W.S.R., to produce a study on market prospects up to the year 2012 (28 producing countries and 114 markets studied).
The conclusion? The economic crisis will have " generally limited consequences on the wine industry". One is tempted to be sceptical in a time when day by day we discover how deep the economic 'malaise' goes. Especially as this study is, by definition, based solely on recent figures.
I.W.S.R. claims that the world wine market will continue to grow. The U.S. will become the consumer market leader (as their previous study also showed), and both the Russian and Chinese markets will continue to progress.
From now until 2012, the wine sector's global turnover should increase by 9% to reach 166 billion dollars. However in France, the world leader in wine production, wine comsumption will continue to drop.
Author:
César Compadre
doc@sudouest.com
S.O. 13/01/09
Translated by Maxine Colas.